桥头跳车的成因分析与防治处理

简单分析了公路桥头跳车的各种原因,对解决桥头跳车问题的防治技术进行了总结。     

An integrated hydro-economic modelling framework to evaluate water allocation strategies II: Scenario assessment

In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin, involving; supplying additional urban demand from agricultural allocations of water, implementing a number of demand management strategies, changing the timing of releases for hydropower generation, changing the crops grown under irrigation, reducing existing stream flows and allowing for more environmental flows. The framework chosen to undertake this assessment was a simulation model that measures and compares the economic values of water allocation scenarios determined from a water allocation model that accounts for supplies of groundwater and surface water across a number of regions and over a variety of uses. Policy makers are provided with the range of measures on the security of the supply of water and the social costs and benefits of reallocating water between sectors and across regions within the sub-basin. Taking water from agriculture to supply urban users has a greater impact on irrigation supplies during dry years. It was also found that changing the allocation of water between sectors, by taking it away from agriculture had a large positive economic impact on the urban sector. Yet the costs involved in undertaking such a strategy results in a significant loss in the net present value of the scheme. Stream flow reductions, if significantly large (at around 20%), were found to have a large physical and economic impact on the agricultural sector. Implementing water saving strategies in Hyderabad was found to be more cost effective than taking water from agriculture, if rainwater tanks are used to achieve this. Changing the timing of hydropower flows resulted in best meeting of irrigation demand in NSLC and NSRC. Under this scenario, the crops grown under irrigation were found to have a significant economic impact on the sub-basin, but not as large as farmers undertaking crop diversification strategies, ones which result in farmers growing less rice. The security of supplying water to different agricultural zones has significantly improved under this scenario. Finally, releasing water for environmental purposes was found to have only a minor impact on the agricultural sector.     

Optimizing competitive uses of water for irrigation and fisheries

Choosing the appropriate reservoir water management strategy can be difficult when the water has multiple uses. This study examines this problem for reservoir managers where water use involves irrigation and fisheries. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model is developed to facilitate reservoir management, using a case study illustration for southern Vietnam. The model includes the response of rice and fish yields to key factors including reservoir water levels, the timing and quantity of water release, and climatic conditions. The model also accounts for variation in rainfall patterns, irrigation requirements, and the demand for low water levels during the fish harvest season. Three production scenarios are examined where the reservoir's water is used for: only producing rice (scenario 1), only producing fish (scenario 2), and producing rice and fish (scenario 3). Key findings are: (1) for scenario 1, adequate water should be released to meet rice growing water requirements and residual water should be stored as a source of water in case of low rainfall, (2) for scenario 2, sufficient water needs to be released prior to the fish harvest to maximize this harvest; and (3) for scenario 3, water should be released prior to fish harvest, but sufficient water should remain to satisfy the water requirements of rice. When the reservoir is managed for joint production of rice and fish, net benefits are 6% greater than when the reservoir is managed solely for rice production. The SDP model developed in this paper could be adapted and applied to other multiple-use resources such as forests, river basins, and land.     

吉林省农村居民消费需求的组合预测研究

农村居民消费是制约农村经济快速、可持续增长的重要原因,对吉林省农村居民的消费需求进行准确可靠的预测,可以为吉林农民的消费行为提供理论依据,为政府预测新的经济前景、制定新政策提供重要参考。为此,分别利用回归分析模型、灰色预测GM(1,1)模型以及神经网络模型3种单模型对吉林省的农村居民消费需求进行了预测,并根据标准差法算出3个单项模型的权重,最后构建组合预测模型对吉林省农村居民消费趋势进行实证研究。     

典型丘陵地带耕地集约利用水平评价研究—以重庆市为例

运用因子分析法对重庆市自直辖以来的耕地集约利用状况进行了实证分析,拟为提高集约利用水平提供建议。研究结果表明,1997-2000年为重庆市耕地集约利用水平迅速提高阶段;2000-2004年为短期波动阶段,其中2002年达到峰值;2004-2006年为集约利用水平一度降低阶段;2006-2008年为逐步提高阶段。提高耕地集约利用水平必须尽快确立国家标准与规程,克服障碍因素影响,坚持内部挖潜,实现可持续性发展。     

农业机械化水平影响因素的灰色关联分析

农业机械化水平的提高受到诸多因素的影响和制约。将影响农机化水平的主要因素归纳为农民人均纯收入、政府对农机事业的支持程度、农民平均受教育程度、农民人均耕地及农机总动力等5个方面。采用灰色关联分析方法,分析了这5个因素对农业机械化水平影响的相对强弱程度。结果表明,对农业机械化水平影响强弱的次序为农民平均受教育程度、农民人均耕地、农机总动力、农民人均纯收入及政府对农机事业的支持程度。对上述结果进行了分析和讨论,特别指出的是在发展农业机械化过程中,应该重视通过培训提高农民的农机化专门知识,通过政策实现农业的规模化经营。     

我国耕地数量变化与保护政策关系的实证分析

以耕地数量的统计数据耕地、保护政策的颁布和实施为基础,借助经济计量学理论以及Eviewes5.1软件,运用协整分析、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应等分析方法,分析了改革开放以来我国耕地数量变化与耕地保护政策之间的互动关系。结果显示:耕地数量变化与耕地保护政策之间存在一种长期均衡关系,说明二者之间存在着某种机制在制约着变量的运动,使二者之间短期内的偏离不会太远,长期则会走向均衡;耕地数量变化与耕地保护政策之间存在单向的因果关系,即耕地数量变化与是耕地保护政策的Granger原因,而耕地保护政策不是耕地数量变化的Granger原因;脉冲响应以及方差分解表明,耕地数量变化对耕地保护政策具有较为持续的促进作用,且作用程度随着滞后期的加大而加强;耕地保护政策具有较强的惯性,主要受其自身以前水平的影响,因此耕地保护政策对耕地保护政策的促进作用不太显著。这也从一个侧面佐证了Granger因果检验的结果。因此,应制定长期而非短期的策略,强化耕地保护政策理论研究,加大耕地保护政策的制定、执行和监督力度,这是解决耕地过快减少问题的重要途径。     

甘蔗分段收获经济效益分析

介绍了由4GZ-9型甘蔗割铺机、6BZ-5型甘蔗剥叶机以及7TS-15型甘蔗装载机组成的最小甘蔗收获系统,并对该系统进行了应用效益分析。通过分析说明采用分段式甘蔗收获技术在经济上是可行的,在目前国情下宜以分段收获作为切入点,促进我国甘蔗收获逐步实现机械化作业。     

鼠笼异步磁力联轴器在耐高温磁力泵中的应用

为了对耐高温磁力泵进行设计和研究,保证磁力泵能够顺利启动和正常工作,对磁力泵中鼠笼转子异步磁力联轴器和泵的机械性能进行了对比分析.根据泵的基本性能公式,推导了泵的转矩与转速之间的关系.利用Ansoft Maxwell软件对鼠笼转子异步磁力联轴器进行有限元瞬态分析,得到转矩和转差率之间的关系,并分别对磁力联轴器的启动和正常工作两个阶段的磁场、扭矩进行了研究.通过将泵与磁力联轴器的性能进行综合分析,得出不同的磁力泵在不同转速下的扭矩、转差率等参数,并得出特定参数条件下泵与磁力联轴器的最优组合.试制出耐高温磁力泵样机进行试验验证,试验结果表明：在泵达到最高效率时,磁力泵的试验扭矩与理论分析得到的扭矩误差较小,说明磁力泵达到了最优化的设计结果,并验证了理论分析的正确性.     

圆柱水射流中的能量分布与统计特征

在13,15,17 MPa压力下,采用相位多普勒粒子分析仪（PDPA）对自由圆柱水射流的轴向速度、轴向脉动速度和液滴粒径进行测量,对通过射流场中不同位置测量体的单个液滴特征进行统计分析,以获得单个液滴的轴向速度和对应的液滴数的相关特征,进而分析射流束中的能量分布.研究结果表明：在相同压力条件下,不同轴向截面上的轴向速度分布呈现一定的相似性,截面边缘处的轴向速度梯度较大;截面边缘处的轴向脉动速度较大,且随射流压力增加,轴向脉动速度增大.对位于中间点的测量体,具有较高速度的液滴占据绝大多数;对边缘处的测量体,液滴速度谱较宽.在不同轴向截面上,随射流压力的变化,对应位置的统计关系变化规律不同.在设定的第1采样时段内,在各中心点处测量体内采集到的有效液滴数相差不大.但穿越边缘点测量体的有效液滴数随射流压力和截面位置的变化极不规则.